Chili Pepper Prices Surge: Weather Disruptions Drive Sharp Price Increases in Metro Manila

The pattern of price volatility during September is not unprecedented in the market. The same price trend in chili peppers occurred in September 2023, as data from DA Bantay Presyo reported that retail prices increased from ₱450-650/kg to ₱550-800/kg within a week. The Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) Deputy Spokesperson, Henry Esconde, clarified that the surge in prices was not due to hoarding, but rather attributed to supply shortages as  Typhoon Bebinca destroyed more than 100 hectares (Ha) of land allotted for chili pepper production.

Current Supply Disruption Factors

The price increase in chili pepper stems from weather-related disruptions in its supply chain. According to Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr., the continuous rainfall has created production challenges, such as hampered harvests, which in turn translate to a reduction in the current market supply. He also noted that successive weather disturbances significantly reduced production in key producing regions, such as Ilocos, Central Luzon, and Bicol.

In Ilocos Region and Central Luzon, farmers reduce their participation in chili pepper production due to unfavorable weather conditions, leading to a decrease in overall production capacity. Weather-related delays in planting schedules have created gaps in the harvest timeline, contributing to a reduction in the current supply. On the other hand, in Bicol, rainfall hampered cultivation and lowered yields. DA spokesperson Arnel de Mesa emphasized that expanding greenhouse production and other protected cultivation methods can help reduce the vulnerability of chili pepper crops to heavy rainfall.

Government Response and Interventions

DA Interventions to Address Price Increase

Agriculture Secretary Laurel Jr. acknowledged the sharp rise in chili pepper prices and assured that the DA is closely monitoring market conditions. To address the situation, the DA is working with regional suppliers to fast-track the movement of stocks into Metro Manila and is considering looking for additional supply options should local harvests continue to be constrained by heavy rainfall. Price monitoring teams were deployed to check possible overpricing and ensure retail prices remain reasonable. These measures are intended to stabilize supply in the short term while safeguarding both consumers and smallholder farmers who remain vulnerable to production losses and volatile earnings.

DOST-PCAARRD Initiatives

Chili Pepper Germplasm Collection Information System

The Department of Science and Technology – Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research and Development (DOST-PCAARRD) funded a project implemented by the Mariano Marcos State University (MMSU). Led by Dr. Dionisio Bucao, the project developed an integrated crop management system for chili pepper and other crops, such as turmeric and garlic, in Batac, Ilocos Norte, through the Science for Change Program (S4CP). Previously featured in a Market Advisory article (see article through this link: https://tinyurl.com/AABHMarketAdvisory020), this initiative also developed an information system for garlic and chili pepper germplasm collection, which is currently deployed at MMSU’s local server. The project team also plans to share the system with the general public, extending access beyond researchers. The development of the information system highlights the effort to conserve and manage the genetic resources of Agri-Food Condiments (AFCs) in the country. By documenting garlic and chili pepper collections, the project contributes to the availability of organized data that supports future research and crop improvement efforts. This project concluded in April 2025.

WiltCure as a Biocontrol Agent

Another initiative, funded by DOST-PCAARRD, was led by Dr. Eufrocinio Marfori of the National Institute of Molecular Biology and Biotechnology of the University of the Philippines Los Baños (BIOTECH-UPLB), in partnership with Central Luzon State University (CLSU). The project focused on the development and pilot testing of WiltCure, a biocontrol agent against Fusarium oxysporum. This fungus causes Fusarium wilt in solanaceous crops, including chili peppers, tomatoes, and eggplants. Farmers traditionally rely on chemical pesticides to manage this disease; however, these are costly, hazardous to human health, and harmful to the environment. WiltCure, a powdered formulation derived from a callus and fungus co-culture extract, offers an eco-friendly and easy-to-use alternative.

Greenhouse and field trials demonstrated that WiltCure effectively reduced disease incidence, improved plant vigor, and increased yields, while being safe for both humans and the environment. Multi-location field tests confirmed its effectiveness under varying conditions, with results showing higher farm incomes and reduced reliance on synthetic pesticides. By offering a sustainable solution for managing Fusarium wilt, this initiative strengthens chili pepper production and helps mitigate risks that contribute to market volatility. The project was completed in December 2020.

Market Outlook

If heavy rainfall persists, consumers may continue to face price volatility and reduced affordability, potentially forcing changes in consumption patterns, leading to lower quantities purchased as households adjust their budgets to accommodate higher costs.  

For producers, despite the price surge at the retail level, farmers continue to face reduced yields that limit their ability to capitalize on improved market prices. The increased production risk from weather disruptions creates a challenging environment where farmers must invest more resources while facing uncertain returns. DA has intensified market monitoring, facilitated stock movement, and is exploring alternative supply sources to stabilize prices. Long-term market stability and resilience will depend on implementing sustainable solutions, such as greenhouse cultivation, digital germplasm systems for chili peppers, and eco-friendly biocontrol agents like WiltCure. Backed by DOST-PCAARRD initiatives, these technologies offer promising pathways to reduce vulnerability, stabilize supply, and secure more reliable incomes for chili pepper farmers.