Using a model-based analysis, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development assessed the impacts of policy reforms on agriculture’s capacity to adapt in the face of accelerating climate change.
Source: IPCC
Faced with a rapid climate change, the agricultural sector is increasingly challenged to provide food, farm incomes, employment, and environmental services to millions of people. The key factor in its capacity to handle these challenges depends on the adaptability with which agricultural output may be relocated in response to agroecological and market conditions being changed by climate change.
To estimate the effects of climate change, agricultural policy reform, and adaptation, the study used a partial equilibrium model, GLOBIUM, with four scenarios including (1.) current policies without climate change, (2.) current policies under climate change, (3.) reformed policies without climate change, and (4.) reformed policies under climate change. Results from the model indicate that removing some forms of support could benefit food consumers worldwide and facilitate adaptation to climate change. Simultaneously, these improvements do not appear to be adequate to reverse climate change’s negative implications on food security and environmental sustainability.
Policy reforms have varying effects depending on the type of agricultural support removed. A comprehensive review of the various policies under consideration is required in order to construct reform packages that are consistent with policymakers’ objectives.
Reference:
Guerrero, S., et al. (2022), “The impacts of agricultural trade and support policy reform on climate change adaptation and environmental performance: A model-based analysis”, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers, No. 180, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/520dd70d-en.
