2024 Chicken Supply and Price Trends, Impact of ASF on Chicken Prices, Challenges from High Humidity, and Initiatives against Bird Flu

Rising Chicken Prices Amid ASF Outbreak

The African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in the Philippines has disrupted the pork supply chain, leading to a surge in chicken prices as consumers shift to alternative protein sources. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data, the price of whole chicken in July was Php 202 per kg. However, by August 18, 2024, GMA News reported that the price of whole chickens in Metro Manila’s public markets increased from Php 190 per kg to Php 220 per kg within a week. The upward trend continued, with prices increasing further to Php 240 per kg as of August 24, reflecting heightened demand as consumers turned away from pork due to ASF concerns.

This price escalation places additional financial strain on urban consumers seeking affordable protein options. While the rising prices present an opportunity for poultry farmers to boost revenue, they also underscore the challenge of balancing supply with the growing demand. Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa has assured the public that pork sold in markets is safe, provided it bears the National Meat Inspection Service (NMIS) seal, but consumer wariness persists.

First Half (H1) of 2024 Supply and Price Trends

On August 21, 2024, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported that the country’s chicken production volume for the second quarter (Q2) of 2024 increased amid El Niño, bird flu, and typhoons. The volume of chicken produced increased by 2.8% from 506,277 metric tons (MT) in the first quarter of 2024 to 520,476 MT in Q2 2024.

Due to the increasing demand for chicken meat by consumers, both farmgate and retail prices of chicken meat followed an increasing trend despite the increase in supply in the first half of the year (H1 2024). The backyard farmgate price of chicken meat per kilo steadily increased over H1 2024 from Php 133.61 per kilogram (kg) in January to Php 158.94 per kg in June. Simultaneously, the commercial farmgate price of chicken meat experienced a gradual increase from Php 114.31 in January to Php 130.87 per kg in June. On the other hand, the retail price of chicken meat exhibited minor fluctuations between January and June, with a slight overall increase from Php 196.49 per kg in January, the price dipped slightly to Php 193.99 per kg in March before gradually rising to Php 198.20 per kg by June. Found in Table 1 below is the summary of prices for chicken meat for H1 2024.

Table 1. Farmgate and Retail Prices of Chicken Meat per Kilo, H1 2024

Source: PSA, 2024

The margins between retail and backyard farmgate prices have steadily decreased over H1 2024. In January, the margin was 62.88, but by June, it had narrowed to 39.26. Meanwhile, the margin between retail price and commercial farmgate price also showed a downward trend, although it experienced a slight increase towards June. In January, the margin stood at 82.18, gradually decreasing to 65.65 by May. However, in June, the margin slightly increased to 67.33. Found in Table 2 below is the summary of the margins between farmgate and retail prices.

Table 2. Margin of Farmgate and Retail Prices of Chicken Meat for H1 2024

Source: PSA, 2024

Rising Imports

In response to the growing demand for poultry, the Philippines has seen a rise in meat imports. The Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) reported on August 27, 2024, that for H1 2024, the overall meat imports rose 9.64% year-on-year from 591.62 million kg in H1 2023 to 647.75 million kg in H1 2024. Meanwhile, chicken imports, which comprised 34.3% of total meat imports, increased by 4.1% from 38.79 million kg in H1 2023 to 40.37 million kg in H1 2024.

Despite the increase in imports, the volume of chicken meat imported from the United States (US) decreased slightly from 71,609.2 MT in H1 2023 to 70,970.6 MT in H1 2024. This decline is attributed to avian influenza and shifting US consumer preferences toward dark meat. However, US poultry exporters are now targeting a rebound in shipments to the Philippines, aiming to capitalize on the growing demand for poultry over pork.

Challenges Posed by High Humidity and Bird Flu

As demand for poultry continues to rise, the sector faces significant challenges due to high humidity during the July-to-September period. The United Broiler Raisers Association (UBRA) warned that this “third quarter syndrome” could result in smaller broiler sizes and longer rearing periods, complicating efforts to meet the increased demand. Despite strong performance in the second quarter, the high humidity could limit the growth of poultry production in the third quarter.

Compounding these challenges is the increased risk of bird flu, which thrives in high-humidity conditions. On August 12, 2024, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) issued a regional alert, emphasizing that the persistence of bird flu under these conditions could further strain the poultry industry. Farmers now face the dual pressures of environmental challenges and disease risks, potentially leading to higher production costs, increased consumer prices, and even potential shortages.

Initiatives against Bird Flu

Improving biosecurity measures is essential to safeguarding the poultry sector and stabilizing food prices. This requires close collaboration between the national government, local governments, and the private sector. By strengthening quarantine and disease prevention measures, the Philippines can better protect its poultry industry from the risks posed by ASF, bird flu, and other environmental factors, ensuring a stable supply of affordable protein for consumers.

• DOST-PCAARRD Program to Predict, Prevent, and Control Bird Flu

The Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic and Natural Resources Research and Development (DOST-PCAARRD) funded a program titled “Development of Intervention Strategies to Predict, Prevent, and Control Disease Outbreaks Caused by Emerging Strains of Newcastle Disease Viruses and Avian Influenza Viruses in the Philippines and China.” 

The program consisted of three project components designed to help address the country’s critical threat of bird flu. Among the significant accomplishments of the program were the identification of key affected areas, analysis of spatiotemporal patterns and the conduct of extensive laboratory testing. The program also found a remarkable 99% genetic similarity between local AI isolates and strains from Korea, Japan, and China, including those from a mandarin duck, a quail, and a chicken. These insights enhanced the understanding of the virus’s spread and evolution. To help control the disease outbreak, the program trained livestock inspectors and veterinarians on disease detection, sample collection, biosafety, and laboratory procedures. An early warning protocol to predict pathogenic strains is also expected to be completed by the end of 2024.

• DA-BAI Monitoring and Caution from Unregulated Vaccines

BAI’s Animal Diagnosis and Reference Laboratory is the sole recognized authority that determines positive bird flu cases in the country. The BAI continuously monitors areas in the country with confirmed cases to prevent and control the spread of bird flu. As of August 16, 2024, only Central Luzon (Region III) and the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) have ongoing bird flu cases, according to the DA-BAI database. In light of this, DA has also issued a warning against purchasing avian influenza (AI) vaccines sold online, highlighting the dangers of unregulated products, especially given the highly pathogenic nature of bird flu.

• NAST PHL Strategic Forum

On May 18, 2022, the National Academy of Science and Technology, Philippines (NAST PHL), an attached Department of Science and Technology (DOST) agency, held a Science Policy and Information Forum on Bird Flu, addressing recent outbreaks and preventive measures. Following confirmed cases of avian influenza (H5N6) in Pampanga, Rizal, and other areas and a declaration of freedom from the strain in early 2021, new outbreaks were reported in Southern Luzon in March 2022.

Experts, including Dr. Dennis Umali and Dr. Nathaniel Tablante Jr., discussed the importance of immediate testing, enhancing diagnostic capabilities, and adopting strategies such as quarantine and emergency vaccination. They also emphasized learning from international practices and addressing issues like climate change and poultry safety. The forum highlighted the need for robust policy measures and preparedness to effectively manage and contain bird flu outbreaks.