Continuing Surge in Pork Prices Amid ASF Concerns and Food Safety Issues: Implications for Consumers, Farmers, and Government Intervention Strategies

Suspected ASF-like Disease

The lingering effects of previous ASF outbreaks continue to constrain supply as the national swine population struggles to recover. Compounding this situation, on February 24, 2025, a suspected new ASF outbreak in Northern Samar resulted in the deaths of over 100 pigs across 50 backyard farms. Affected animals displayed classic ASF symptoms, including high fever, skin redness, and loss of appetite. While ASF has yet to be confirmed, authorities have implemented containment measures, including testing, movement restrictions, and quarantine checkpoints to prevent further spread. Backyard raisers either buried or butchered their pigs to mitigate risks, highlighting the urgency of disease management. Strict biosecurity and early detection remain essential in protecting the local swine industry.

Food Safety Concerns Further Complicate the Market

Market tensions escalated on March 12, 2025, when the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) Central Luzon agents seized approximately ₱600 million worth of expired frozen meat at a cold storage warehouse in Meycauayan, Bulacan. The operation uncovered imported meat in various stages of decay—moldy, infested with maggots, and dating back as far as 2020—that had allegedly been reprocessed into processed meat products, including siomai and hotdogs. The investigators revealed that the company had been altering expiration labels to make the meat appear fresh before grinding it into processed food products. 

NBI officials emphasized the significant public health risk posed by these practices, as consumers may have unknowingly purchased and consumed hazardous meat products. Following the raid conducted by NBI, authorities ordered the immediate disposal of the confiscated products to prevent them from reaching the market. The company now faces potential charges under the Consumer Act in relation to the Food Security Act. This food safety issue illustrates the unsafe responses some operators may pursue amid supply shortages and rising prices. As consumers face higher prices and potential safety concerns, government interventions addressing production challenges and market monitoring have become increasingly critical.

Government Interventions

• Facility Against ASF

Senator Cynthia Villar has pushed for constructing the first border facility to prevent the entry and spread of ASF, which has severely impacted the local hog industry. As chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee, she also proposed a livestock, poultry, and dairy industry development and competitiveness fund to aid farmers in recovering from ASF-related losses. The fund would be sourced from tariff collections on imported livestock, poultry, and dairy products. By strengthening biosecurity measures and providing financial support, these initiatives aim to rehabilitate the hog sector, protect local farmers, and ensure the stability of the country’s pork supply.

• Maximum Suggested Retail Price for Pork

The DA has set a maximum suggested retail price (MSRP) for pork to stabilize rising prices, capping pork shoulder at ₱350/kg and pork belly at ₱380/kg. This follows DA’s consultations with industry stakeholders after pork belly prices peaked at ₱480/kg. The hog raisers group, PPFP, supported the move, noting that farm gate prices are only ₱230/kg. Las Piñas Public Market United Vendors President Manny Pareja also supports the MSRP on pork as it is necessary since sales of pork retailers are affected as well by the high retail price, which discourages consumers from buying more pork products. However, other traders and retailers argue that the price cap reduces their profits and may force some to close their stalls due to high operating costs. 

To enforce compliance with the MSRP, the DA, along with the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), local government units (LGUs), and the Philippine National Police (PNP), is monitoring Metro Manila markets. DA Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. has also ordered a review to assess possible MSRP expansion to other regions. A monthly reassessment will determine the policy’s effectiveness in balancing affordability for consumers and sustainability for sellers, especially as pork demand is expected to decrease due to the coming Lenten season.

• DOST-PCAARRD’s Innovation on Swine Disease Management

The Department of Science and Technology Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic, and Natural Resources Research and Development (DOST-PCAARRD) is monitoring a critical project implemented by the Industrial Technology Development Institute (ITDI) of DOST, under the Virology and Vaccine Research Program (VRP). The project focused on developing a real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) protocol for point-of-need detection of the African swine fever virus (ASFV). With ASFV causing significant losses since 2019, this initiative aimed to create a rapid, portable, and cost-effective real-time PCR assay optimized for field use, enhancing biosecurity measures and disease control. 

Moreover, the project also produced a DNA Extraction Kit for African Swine Fever Virus that is comparable in result but cheaper than the commercially available Extraction Kit.  The project will benefit pig farmers, veterinary drug developers, diagnostic laboratories, and relevant government agencies by providing innovative disease management and prevention solutions. Before this, DOST-PCAARRD has launched two vital initiatives to address the ASF crisis in the country, focusing on improving disease surveillance and risk assessment in partnership with the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB) College of Veterinary Medicine (CVM) (see article by clicking this link: https://tinyurl.com/AABHMarketAdvisory018). 

Market Outlook

The continued rise in pork prices, with pork ham and pork belly reaching ₱440/kg and ₱480/kg, respectively, remains a burden for consumers. The lingering impact of ASF on local hog production, coupled with a suspected new outbreak in Northern Samar, has tightened supply, driving prices higher. In response, the government has introduced an MSRP of ₱350/kg for pork shoulder and ₱380/kg for pork belly, aiming to curb inflation. However, some traders and retailers argue that the price cap will reduce their profits and may force some to close their stalls due to high operating costs. Meanwhile, the recent seizure of Php600 million of expired frozen meat in Bulacan raises serious food safety concerns, emphasizing stricter import monitoring and enforcement.

With the Lenten season potentially dampening the demand for pork, a temporary price stabilization may occur, but long-term solutions are needed to prevent further volatility. For farmers, ASF-related losses threaten livelihoods, making disease control and financial support crucial. Efforts like the proposed livestock industry development fund and PCAARRD’s research on ASF detection and antiviral solutions could strengthen the swine sector’s resilience. Sustainable hog repopulation programs, enhanced biosecurity measures, and effective market regulations will be essential in balancing consumer affordability while ensuring profitability for hog raisers.