Q2 Hog Supply and Price Trends, and Effects of the Escalating ASF Outbreak

Hog Supply and Price Trends in Q2

On August 8, 2024, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released its latest data on the country’s hog production for the second quarter (Q2) of 2024. The data revealed a decrease in the volume of hogs produced from 422,718.73 metric tons (MT) in Q2 2023 to 422,064.15 MT in Q2 2024 primarily due to the adverse effects of El Niño, the tropical cyclones and the increasing ASF outbreaks.

The decrease in supply, coupled with increased production costs, led to a 12.84% rise in farmgate prices from Php 169.73 to Php 191.52 per kg. Retail prices also saw marginal increases as seen in the table below, though pork spare ribs experienced a slight drop according to the latest data provided by PSA. For consumers, higher pork prices may strain household budgets which may result in consumers shifting to cheaper protein sources, buy smaller quantities, or seek discounts, potentially reducing pork demand and increasing food insecurity for lower-income households. Meanwhile, farmers face reduced yields and elevated costs, threatening their profitability and potentially leading to further supply constraints.

 Table 1.Retail Price per Kilogram of Pork Meat Products in Q2 of 2023 and 2024

ASF Outbreak Escalates in Batangas

The ASF outbreak in Batangas has rapidly escalated, triggering widespread concern across the Philippines. Since the initial reports of the resurgence, the situation has worsened, prompting both the national government and local government units (LGUs) to take urgent measures to contain the disease.

     ●  Initial Reports, Areas Affected, and Immediate Actions

On August 6, 2024, the Department of Agriculture (DA) reported a new ASF outbreak in Batangas, affecting Lobo, Calatagan, Lian, Rosario, San Juan, Tuy, and Lipa City. To control the virus, the DA set up temporary livestock checkpoints across Luzon to curb the spread of the virus while waiting for ASF vaccines. As of August 8, 2024, the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) noted active ASF cases in 62 municipalities across 22 provinces, including Cavite, Laguna, Quezon, the Ilocos Region, and Central Luzon.

     ●  Vaccine Procurement and Raised Concerns

The ASF outbreak in Batangas has caused nationwide concern, especially among hog raisers and farmers’ groups. On August 11, 2024, the DA announced a Php 350 million allocation for procurement of 600,000 doses of the AVAC ASF Live Vaccine from Vietnam, expected to arrive in Q3 2024. However, concerns have been raised about the potential use of expired vaccines, with Rosendo So, chairman of Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura (SINAG), warning against using 150,000 doses of vaccines which expired in March. As ASF cases rise, the National Federation of Hog Farmers, Inc. (NFHFI) has called for stricter animal movement restrictions, emphasizing that vaccines alone may not be enough to control the outbreak. Mr. Alfred Ng, chairman of NFHFI, highlighted the need for vigilant monitoring to prevent further spread.

     ●  Significant Impacts on the Swine Industry

The ASF outbreak has severely impacted the Philippine swine industry, causing over Php 100 million in losses in one town in Batangas alone, with at least 8,800 hogs either dead or culled as of July 31, 2024. With the ongoing ASF crisis further intensifying supply constraints, pork prices are expected to remain volatile and high, particularly during the upcoming Christmas season. The combined effects of reduced supply, increased production costs, and stringent biosecurity measures are contributing to market instability and impacting both consumers and farmers.

     ●  Calls for State of Calamity and Government Response

In response to the escalating ASF crisis, the Pork Producers Federation of the Philippines (PPFP) has called on the national government to declare a state of calamity nationwide to facilitate funding for ASF vaccine procurement. As of August 12, 2024, only Calatagan has made this declaration. Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. has urged other LGUs to do the same to accelerate response efforts. He assured that current lockdowns are limited to farms and not a province-wide or nationwide measure. The DA’s Integrated National Swine Production Initiatives for Recovery and Expansion (INSPIRE) program is working to support hog repopulation and prevent pork shortages.

On August 13, 2024, the DA reported that the agency planned to procure an additional 10,000 doses of the AVAC ASF Live Vaccine by August 23, 2024. Despite these efforts, ASF remains a significant challenge, with over 74 provinces across all 17 regions reporting cases since 2019. The DA’s strategy of localized quarantine and targeted vaccination faces hurdles if the outbreak continues to spread. The situation in Batangas highlights the ongoing challenges in the Philippine livestock industry and emphasizes the need for vigilant biosecurity measures and effective government intervention to mitigate further impact.

DOST-PCAARRD Initiatives Against ASF

To combat the escalating ASF crisis and stabilize the swine industry, innovative solutions and targeted research are being implemented. The ASFV Nanogold Biosensor test kit and a new PCAARRD-funded project in Camarines Sur represent crucial steps in enhancing diagnostic capabilities and assessing herd immunity to effectively manage and control ASF outbreaks.

• ASFV Nanogold Biosensor Test Kit

The Department of Science and Technology–Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic, and Natural Resources Research and Development (DOST-PCAARRD) and Central Luzon State University (CLSU) has developed the ASFV Nanogold Biosensor test kit, led by Dr. Clarissa Domingo. This innovative diagnostic tool combines Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification (LAMP) with nanotechnology, using gold nanoparticles to detect and visualize amplified DNA from various samples, including blood, feces, saliva, raw meat, and environmental swabs, with results available in 30 minutes. The kit includes environmentally friendly and cost-effective reagents for ten reactions, capable of handling pooled samples from up to three pigs. It features a styrobox with gel coolants for Nanopremix tubes and an insulation bag for Gdye tubes to ensure proper transport and storage. Results are read by colorimetry, with shades of grey indicating a strong positive, old rose for a weak positive, and wine red for a negative result, providing crucial support for managing and containing ASF outbreaks.

• New PCAARRD-Funded ASF Project Launched in Camarines Sur

To address the challenges posed by ASF and ensure the stability of local swine production, the Livestock Research Division (LRD) of the DOST-PCAARRD, led by Dr. Synan S. Baguio, held a pivotal inception meeting with Central Bicol State University of Agriculture (CBSUA) on May 20, 2024. This meeting launched the PCAARRD-funded project titled “Serologic Evaluation of Herd Immunity against African Swine Fever (ASF) in Backyard Pigs in Camarines Sur.” Project Leader Dr. Mark Jaypee C. Gonzales presented the initiative to assess backyard pigs’ herd immunity against ASF and evaluate local farmers’ knowledge, attitudes, and practices. Funded with Php 2,682,350.00 from PCAARRD, the project is crucial for developing effective strategies to control and prevent ASF outbreaks, thereby protecting pig farmers’ livelihoods and maintaining the stability of the swine industry, which is essential for the local economy.